Method and system for generating occupant schedules

ABSTRACT

Embodiments of the present invention generally relate to the modeling of building occupant behavior. An embodiment of the present invention relates to a method for generating interdependent schedules in an occupant simulation model. Within schedules generated in accordance with the present invention may be included activities that require the attendance of other occupants. Disclosed are methods for distributing multi-occupant activities among other occupants of a building. In another embodiment of the present invention, personas are used to generate simulated occupant schedules from a limited number of real-world occupant surveys. Characteristics of the real-world schedules are manipulated so as to fit desired characteristics. Multiple persona models are disclosed.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

1. Field of the Invention

Embodiments of the present invention generally relate to the modeling ofbuilding occupant behavior.

2. Description of the Related Art

Buildings consume vast amounts of energy. Some estimate that theyaccount for 72% of electricity use in the US. It has been suggested thatappropriate design improvements, selected with the aid ofdecision-support software, could reduce energy use by about 30% inexisting buildings and 50% to 75% in new buildings. This is themotivation for building performance simulation. The idea is to model abuilding's many interacting subsystems, including its occupants,electrical equipment, and indoor and outdoor climate. With simulationresults in hand, an architect is better able to predict the energydemand associated with various designs and can choose from among themore sustainable options.

A building's energy consumption patterns depend largely on the behaviorof the people that occupy it, a fact observed by comparing the timing ofdaily activities with profiles of energy use. Many existing buildingperformance simulation tools use fixed schedules to account for thepresence of occupants but such schedules do not yield realistic results.

As the foregoing illustrates, there is a need in the art for a moredetailed and realistic occupancy models for accurate energy demandpredictions.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

An embodiment of the present invention relates to a method forgenerating interdependent schedules in an occupant simulation model. Inthis embodiment of the invention, a plurality of schedules are generatedhaving various activities. Within the generated schedules may beincluded activities that require the attendance of other occupants.Whereas prior art methods have not accounted for interdependentactivities and schedules, disclosed herein are methods for distributingmulti-occupant activities among other occupants of a building. In thisway, the schedules obtained in accordance with the present invention aremore realistic.

In another embodiment of the present invention, personas are used togenerate simulated occupant schedules from a limited number ofreal-world occupant schedules. Characteristics of the real-worldschedules are manipulated so as to fit desired characteristics. Forexample, whereas the real-world schedules may have certain statisticsassociated with them, an embodiment of the present invention can steersuch characteristics to meet desired attributes. For example, attributessuch as arrival and departure times can be made to fit withinpredetermined intervals. Many simulated schedules can be generated froma small number of real-world schedules where the simulated schedulesexhibit desirable real-world characteristics. In other embodiments ofthe invention, different persona models are disclosed.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

So that the manner in which the above recited features of the presentinvention can be understood in detail, a more particular description ofthe invention, briefly summarized above, may be had by reference toembodiments, some of which are illustrated in the appended drawings. Itis to be noted, however, that the appended drawings illustrate onlytypical embodiments of this invention and are therefore not to beconsidered limiting of its scope, for the invention may admit to otherequally effective embodiments.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a computer system on which certainembodiments of the present invention can be implemented.

FIG. 2 shows various schedules as generated and used in embodiments ofthe present invention.

FIG. 3 shows a histogram as generated and used in embodiments of thepresent invention.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart of a method for generating interdependentschedules according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart of a method for generating interdependentschedules according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 shows a modified histogram as generated and used in embodimentsof the present invention.

FIG. 7 shows an expansion of the matrix equation A·W=B used in certainembodiment of the present invention in order to obtain weights fromschedules and an artificial persona weighting coefficients.

FIG. 8 shows the certain activity profiles based on recorded schedulesaccording to an embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 9 shows certain activity profiles of three personas as accumulatedfrom 100,000 schedules generated according to an embodiment of theinvention.

FIG. 10 is a flowchart for a method according to an embodiment of theinvention for using personas to generate simulated schedules.

FIG. 11 is a flowchart for a method according to an embodiment of theinvention for creating an inferred persona.

FIG. 12 is a flowchart for a method according to an embodiment of theinvention for creating an artificial persona.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Among other things, the present invention relates to methods,techniques, and algorithms that are intended to be implemented in adigital computer system. By way of overview that is not intended to belimiting, digital computer system 100 as shown in FIG. 1 will bedescribed. Such a digital computer or embedded device is well-known inthe art and may include variations of the below-described system.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a system 100 configured to implement one ormore aspects of the present invention. System 100 may be a computerworkstation, personal computer, or any other device suitable forpracticing one or more embodiments of the present invention. As shown,system 100 includes one or more processing units, such as centralprocessing unit (CPU) 102, and a system memory 104 communicating via abus path that may include a memory bridge 105. CPU 102 includes one ormore processing cores, and, in operation; CPU 102 is the masterprocessor of system 100, controlling and coordinating operations ofother system components. System memory 104 stores software applicationsand data for use by CPU 102. CPU 102 runs software applications andoptionally an operating system. Memory bridge 105, which may be, e.g., aNorthbridge chip, is connected via a bus or other communication path(e.g., a HyperTransport link) to an I/O (input/output) bridge 107. I/Obridge 107, which may be, e.g., a Southbridge chip, receives user inputfrom one or more user input devices such as keyboard 108 or mouse 109and forwards the input to CPU 102 via memory bridge 105. In alternativeembodiments, I/O bridge 107 may also be connected to other input devicessuch as a joystick, digitizer tablets, touch pads, touch screens, stillor video cameras, motion sensors, and/or microphones (not shown).

One or more display processors, such as display processor 112, arecoupled to memory bridge 105 via a bus or other communication path 113(e.g., a PCI Express, Accelerated Graphics Port, or HyperTransportlink); in one embodiment display processor 112 is a graphics subsystemthat includes at least one graphics processing unit (GPU) and graphicsmemory. Graphics memory includes a display memory (e.g., a frame buffer)used for storing pixel data for each pixel of an output image. Graphicsmemory can be integrated in the same device as the GPU, connected as aseparate device with the GPU, and/or implemented within system memory104. Display processor 112 periodically delivers pixels to a displaydevice 110 that may be any conventional CRT or LED monitor. Displayprocessor 112 can provide display device 110 with an analog or digitalsignal.

A system disk 114 is also connected to I/O bridge 107 and may beconfigured to store content and applications and data for use by CPU 102and display processor

112. System disk 114 provides non-volatile storage for applications anddata and may include fixed or removable hard disk drives, flash memorydevices, and CD-ROM, DVD ROM, Blu-ray, HD-DVD, or other magnetic,optical, or solid state storage devices.

A switch 116 provides connections between I/O bridge 107 and othercomponents such as a network adapter 118 and various add-in cards 120and 121. Network adapter 118 allows system 100 to communicate with othersystems via an electronic communications network, and may include wiredor wireless communication over local area networks and wide areanetworks such as the Internet.

Other components (not shown), including USB or other port connections,film recording devices, and the like, may also be connected to I/Obridge 107. For example, an audio processor may be used to generateanalog or digital audio output from instructions and/or data provided byCPU 102, system memory 104, or system disk 114. Communication pathsinterconnecting the various components in FIG. 1 may be implementedusing any suitable protocols, such as PCI (Peripheral ComponentInterconnect), PCI Express (PCI-E), AGP (Accelerated Graphics Port),HyperTransport, or any other bus or point-to-point communicationprotocol(s), and connections between different devices may use differentprotocols, as is known in the art.

In one embodiment, display processor 112 incorporates circuitryoptimized for graphics and video processing, including, for example,video output circuitry, and constitutes a graphics processing unit(GPU). In another embodiment, display processor 112 incorporatescircuitry optimized for general purpose processing. In yet anotherembodiment, display processor 112 may be integrated with one or moreother system elements, such as the memory bridge 105, CPU 102, and I/Obridge 107 to form a system on chip (SoC). In still further embodiments,display processor 112 is omitted and software executed by CPU 102performs the functions of display processor 112.

Pixel data can be provided to display processor 112 directly from CPU102. In some embodiments of the present invention, instructions and/ordata representing a scene are provided to a render farm or a set ofserver computers, each similar to system 100, via network adapter 118 orsystem disk 114. The render farm generates one or more rendered imagesof the scene using the provided instructions and/or data. These renderedimages may be stored on computer-readable media in a digital format andoptionally returned to system 100 for display.

Alternatively, CPU 102 provides display processor 112 with data and/orinstructions defining the desired output images, from which displayprocessor 112 generates the pixel data of one or more output images,including characterizing and/or adjusting the offset between stereoimage pairs. The data and/or instructions defining the desired outputimages can be stored in system memory 104 or a graphics memory withindisplay processor 112. In an embodiment, display processor 112 includes3D rendering capabilities for generating pixel data for output imagesfrom instructions and data defining the geometry, lighting shading,texturing, motion, and/or camera parameters for a scene. Displayprocessor 112 can further include one or more programmable executionunits capable of executing shader programs, tone mapping programs, andthe like.

In one embodiment, application 150 is stored in system memory 104.Application 150 may be any application configured to display a graphicaluser interface (GUI) on display device 110. Application 150 may beconfigured to generate and modify documents based on input received froma user. For example, application 150 may be a word processingapplication or an image editing program.

It will be appreciated that the system shown herein is illustrative andthat variations and modifications are possible. The connection topology,including the number and arrangement of bridges, may be modified asdesired. For instance, in some embodiments, system memory 104 may beconnected to CPU 102 directly rather than through a bridge, and otherdevices may communicate with system memory 104 via memory bridge 105 andCPU 102. In other alternative topologies display processor 112 may beconnected to I/O bridge 107 or directly to CPU 102, rather than tomemory bridge 105. In still other embodiments, I/O bridge 107 and memorybridge 105 may be integrated in a single chip. In addition, theparticular components shown herein are optional. For instance, anynumber of add-in cards or peripheral devices might be supported. In someembodiments, switch 116 is eliminated, and network adapter 118 andadd-in cards 120, 121 connect directly to I/O bridge 107.

Among other things, embodiments of the present invention introducepersonas, descriptions of fictional individuals used in the field ofhuman-computer interaction, into a simulation of building performance.With modern trends in energy and resource conservation, a goal of thepresent invention is to reduce the impact of buildings on theenvironment by helping architects predict the energy demand associatedwith different design options.

The present invention generally relates to methods and techniques forsimulating the behavior of individual building occupants. The methodsand techniques of the present invention advantageously allow occupantsto interact with one another to produce realistic simulations. Inanother embodiment, the present invention uses personas to customize anddiversify occupant behavior. Occupant interaction and behaviorcustomization were achieved by way of the assignment of weightingcoefficients to activities used for model calibration. Simulationresults demonstrate that, by supplying only certain information, thepresent invention can generate interdependent schedules specificallytailored to identified projects.

In an embodiment, a method of the present invention generates sets ofschedules for a predetermined number of building occupants. Theschedules feature occupant interaction and other attributes. Forexample, if an office meeting or social gathering appears in theschedule of one occupant, it will also appear in the schedules of otherparticipating occupants. Also, the behavior represented in the schedulescan be customized. For example, occupant interaction and behaviorcustomization are achieved using a mathematical technique describedbelow. In this technique, the assignment of weighting coefficients tothe schedules and activities used for model calibration.

In an embodiment of the invention, an occupant schedule is a list ofconsecutive activities that describe the behavior of a building occupantover the course of a single day. Example of an occupant schedules 202and 204 are shown in FIG. 2. For purposes of the example shown in FIG.2, activities are limited to Off (meaning that an occupant is out of thebuilding), Work (meaning that the occupant is working individually inthe building), Eat (meaning that the occupant is eating a mealindividually), and Meet (meaning the occupant is participating in amulti-person meeting). Other embodiments of the invention include manymore tasks as may be performed by a building occupant. For a givenactivity, the example of FIG. 2 includes two attributes. Duration is theamount of time that an activity will last. This information along withthe known start time also sets the end time. For a multi-person meeting,the attribute n_(PO) specifies the number of participating occupants.Many more activities are possible without deviating from the teachingsof the present invention. For example, activities can include in_office,in_hallway, or in_conference_room to indicate work activities that maybe performed in various parts of a building. Likewise, many moreattributes are possible without deviating from the teachings of thepresent invention. For example, attributes for an activity can includeresource_used, quantity_of_resource, duration_of_use, among otherthings. Such attributes can be useful in modeling electrical usage,water usage, or even the use of paper in copiers and printers. These andmany more variations of the present invention will be understood bythose of ordinary skill in the art upon an understanding of the presentdisclosure.

In modeling the use of a building, it is desirable to model the behaviorof its occupants. One method for doing so is to build schedules for allthe occupants of a building. Shown in FIG. 2 are schedules for twooccupants of a building. As shown, for example, in schedule 202 forOccupant 1, he arrives to work at 9:00 AM and works in his office forone hour. He then goes on to attend a five-person meeting at 10:00 AMthat lasts one hour. The activities for Occupant 1 continue until heleaves the building at 6:00 PM. Occupant n has a different schedulewhere such occupant arrives at 10:00 AM and leaves at 8:00 PM whileperforming Work, Eat, and Meet tasks as shown in schedule 204.

Described in the present disclosure is an occupant behavior simulationas schedule-calibrated if behavioral patterns found in the recordedschedules of building occupants are automatically reproduced in thegenerated schedules. Each schedule-calibrated method involves a modelcalibration phase during which histograms are populated using theactivities of recorded schedules. For example, in the histogram 306 ofFIG. 3, note that Activity #1, a transition from the off task to thework task occurring between 10:00 and 11:00, contributes a value of 1 tothe off→work row and the column labeled 10. As shown in FIGS. 2 and 3,one-hour increments are used. In practice, multiple schedules couldcontribute to a given histogram. In practice also, it is desirable touse a finer resolution such as one-minute increments. Other embodimentscan use even smaller time increments if desired.

Prior art schedule-calibrated methods have not properly accounted formulti-occupant interaction. For example, if a five-person meeting isgenerated in the schedule of one occupant, the same meeting should occurin the generated schedules of four other occupants. In the prior art,generated occupant schedules have been independent.

Prior art schedule-calibrated occupant behavior simulation methods alsofail to provide easy-to-use mechanisms for customizing simulatedbehavior. Consider a scenario in which a client informs an architectthat a future office building will accommodate different numbers ofprogrammers, managers, marketers, and salespeople. Each type of occupantis expected to work different hours and favor different activities. Thisdiverse yet project-specific behavior could be modeled by supplyingschedules for calibration but would be prohibitively time-consuming.

In an embodiment of the invention, personas are implemented as developedfor human-computer interaction (HCI). In an embodiment, a persona is adescription of a fictional individual. In certain fields, personas areused to better understand product requirements by using fictionalcharacters as future users. In other fields, a persona may be assigned aportrait, a name like “Max” or “Jane Roberts”, and a 1-2 pagedescription emphasizing personality traits and social/workrelatedhabits. And while personas are generally qualitative in nature, they canbe reduced to sets of quantitative attributes and analyzed numerically.It is the use of quantitative personas that will be describe furtherbelow.

In an embodiment of the present invention, a schedule-calibrated methodis described that accommodates interaction between simulated occupants.In one particular embodiment, only one additional input parameter isneeded: the maximum number of building occupants N. Instead ofgenerating each occupant schedule independently, a method of the presentinvention generates N schedules simultaneously.

Shown in FIGS. 4 and 5 are methods for generating interdependentoccupant schedules according to an embodiment of the invention. Althoughthe method is described in conjunction with the various systemrepresentations set forth herein, persons skilled in the art willunderstand that any system that describes the method steps, in anyorder, falls within the scope of the present invention.

As shown in FIG. 4, at step 402, time is initialized. For example, in anembodiment of the invention time is initialized at 12:00 AM. Otherinitialization times are, of course, possible. At step 403, theactivities of the N occupants of a building are initialized to Off, thatis no one is in the building. Also, attributes for this first activityare set. In an embodiment, occupant attributes include Activity,Start_time, Duration, and Number_of_Participating_Occupants (also calledn_(PO) in the present disclosure). In the embodiment of FIG. 4 after thecompletion of step 403, all the occupants are outside of the buildingand their arrival time (e.g., the completion of the Off activity) isknown. In other embodiments of the invention, start times can berandomly generated for the various occupants of the building as a timestep is incremented (see step 404).

As shown in FIG. 4, at step 404 a time step is incremented and certainsteps are implemented for the N occupants of a building. For example,for Occupant 1, a check is performed at step 406-1 to determine whetherhis prior activity has expired. If it has not, no further activity isperformed for Occupant 1 until a next time step (see “No” branch fromstep 406-1. If, on the other hand, the prior activity has expired (see“Yes” branch from step 406-1), a new activity is assigned to Occupant 1at step 408-1 and the attributes for such new activity are set at step410-1. At step 412-1, an accounting is made of the new activity if it isa multi-occupant activity such as a meeting.

Steps 406-1 through 412-1 are repeated at each time step for Occupant 1.Likewise, similar steps are repeated for each occupant (see steps 406-Nthrough 412-N for Occupant N).

For a multi-occupant activity such as a meeting, more details areprovided for step 412 in FIG. 5. As shown in FIG. 5, where a newactivity for Occupant A is a meeting, other participating occupants(n_(PO)) are also assigned the same meeting activity. For example, afirst other participating occupant, Occupant A, is assigned the meetingas his new activity at step 504-A and the meeting attributes forOccupant A are assigned at step 506-A. Steps 504-x and 506-x areperformed for a total of n_(PO)−1 other occupants. In the presentdescription, Occupant A that initiated the meeting is called theinitiator and the n_(PO)−1 other occupants that have the meetingsaltered are called the summoned occupants. The steps of 504-x and 506-xare likewise repeated for other occupants of a meeting (or othermulti-occupant activity).

In an embodiment, new activities for occupants are randomly generatedaccording to various probability distributions. These distributions candepend, for example, on values extracted from the histograms populatedin the calibration phase as described herein.

In other embodiments of the invention, the manner of assigning a newactivity to summoned occupants can be varied. For example, a one optionis to apply the shared activity immediately to the summoned occupants.For example, the method prematurely terminates the current activities ofall n_(PO)−1 summoned occupants, and appends the new shared activity tothe n_(PO)−1 associated schedules. In this way, all n_(PO) occupantsbegin the shared activity at the same time. In the case of an officemeeting, all attendees would arrive at exactly the same time. Some mightleave early, however, to attend other meetings through subsequentperformance of steps 502-x through 506-x of FIG. 5.

Another option is to queue the shared activity. For example, eachsummoned occupant would transition to the shared activity only after thescheduled completion of his/her current activity. This option wouldallow participants to arrive late for a meeting, though all participantswould leave the meeting at the same time.

To account for both planned and impromptu meetings, an embodiment of theinvention implements a compromise between the two options describedabove. First, [n_(PO)/2] of the n_(PO)−1 summoned occupants are selectedto abandon their current activities and immediately switch to the sharedactivity. The remaining summoned occupants complete their currentactivities and, thereafter, transition to the shared activity. With thisapproach, some occupants may arrive late to a meeting and some may leaveearly.

In the present invention, the frequency with which simulated occupantsinitiate shared activities reflects the frequency with which realoccupants interact. But because an occupant can be summoned by otheroccupants, the frequency with which simulated occupants participate inshared activities can be overestimated if not properly accounted.

In an embodiment of the present invention, a solution is to reduce theprobability of initiating an n_(PO)-person activity by a factor ofn_(PO). This is done by assigning a weighting coefficient of 1/n_(PO) toeach activity in the recorded schedules used for calibration. Thesecoefficients affect the histogram population procedure discussedpreviously. Table 602 presents the scaled histogram of table 306 asshown in FIG. 3. For example, because Activity 604 has 3 participatingoccupants, the value for activity 308 is scaled by ⅓. Similaradjustments are made for other multi-occupant activities.

This application of weighting coefficients reduces the rate at whichsimulated occupants initiate shared activities, compensating for thefact that they may be summoned to activities initiated by others.Further below in the present disclosure, different sets of non-negativeweighting coefficients are introduced to influence behavior in otherways. In other embodiments, however, negative weighting coefficients maybe implemented.

Personas will now be discussed in the context of building performancesimulation as a way of customizing simulated behavior. In the HCIcommunity, software designers introduce personas to better understandthe habits of users of future computer applications. In a similar way,architects can use personas in accordance with the present invention tobetter predict occupant behavior in buildings.

In HCI, personas tend to be qualitative in nature. But in the presentdisclosure, quantitative personas are used. In the present invention, apersona is regarded as a set of quantitative persona attributes. Todescribe an office worker, for example, useful persona attributesinclude, among other things, arrival time, percentage of the day spentin meetings, and number of breaks taken each day.

In general, the more attributes a persona is given, the fewer real-worldpeople it can reasonably represent. To broaden the scope of personas, inan embodiment of the invention, persona attributes are expressed asintervals rather than being strictly bounded. This allows the personasto be representative of more occupants of a building. For example,instead of stating that an occupant arrives at 09:00 A.M., spends 5% ofthe day in meetings, and takes 3 breaks each day, the present inventionconsiders that he arrives between 08:45 and 09:15 A.M., spends 3% to 7%of the day in meetings, and takes 2 to 4 breaks. Each interval has anassociated probability (e.g., “ . . . arrives between 08:45 and 09:15,80% of the time). Any particular application of the present invention,could vary these types of intervals as desired. A user of a simulationpackage that implements the present invention can readily understand theuse of these intervals.

Mathematically, it is more convenient to parameterize each personaattribute with a mean value μ and a standard deviation σ. If μ and a areknown, then the interval bounds b_(lower) and b_(upper) associated witha probability of p may be calculated from Equation 1 (shown below).Similarly, if the interval is known, μ and σ from Equation 2 (shownbelow). Φ_(inv), is used to denote the inverse cumulative distributionfunction of a standard normal distribution. Other probabilitydistributions can also be used.

$\begin{matrix}{{b_{lower} = {\mu - {{\Phi_{inv}\left( \frac{1 + p}{2} \right)} \cdot \sigma}}}{b_{upper} = {\mu + {{\Phi_{inv}\left( \frac{1 + p}{2} \right)} \cdot \sigma}}}} & (1) \\{{\mu = \frac{b_{lower} + b_{upper}}{2}}{\sigma = \frac{b_{upper} - b_{lower}}{2 \cdot {\Phi_{inv}\left( \frac{1 + p}{2} \right)}}}} & (2)\end{matrix}$

Shown in FIG. 10 is a method according to an embodiment of the inventionfor using personas to generate simulated occupant schedules. Althoughthe method is described in conjunction with the various systemrepresentations set forth herein, persons skilled in the art willunderstand that any system that describes the method steps, in anyorder, falls within the scope of the present invention.

As shown in FIG. 10, a user of a software package that implements thepresent invention can be provided with a choice of attributes that areto be used for generating the simulated schedules. As described above,attributes can include, among other things, arrival time, percentage ofthe day spent in meetings, and number of breaks taken each day. Manymore attributes can be used in accordance with the present inventionwithout deviating from its teachings.

At step 1004, a user of a software package that implements the presentinvention can specify characteristics associated with the variousattributes that are to be used. For example, as described above, thecharacteristics of the attributes can be specified as intervals. Asoftware package can then use these intervals to generate desiredstatistical parameters such as the mean and standard deviation of aprobability distribution. Alternatives to specifying intervals can alsobe implemented. For example, instead of specifying a range that boundsan attribute, other characteristics can be specified. For example, amean and standard deviation of a probability distribution can bespecified. Moreover, the type of probability distribution can also bespecified (e.g., normal distribution, uniform distribution, exponentialdistribution, etc.).

As shown in FIG. 10, this embodiment of the present invention processesthe provided information at step 1006 according to a predeterminedpersona to generate simulated schedules at step 1008. The method of FIG.10 can be implemented a multitude of times to generate a plurality ofsimulated schedules as desired.

The manner of constructing the personas of the present invention willnow be discussed. Two types of personas are disclosed: (i) inferredpersonas and (ii) artificial personas. Variations and combinations ofthese personas are also within the scope of the present invention.

Shown in FIG. 11 is a method for constructing an inferred personaaccording to an embodiment of the present invention. In the case of aninferred persona, m persona attributes are generated at step 1106 from noccupant schedules that are collected at step 1102 and their associatedweighting coefficients that are calculated at step 1104. Recall that aweighting coefficient pertains to a single activity and that there areseveral activities in an occupant schedule. An embodiment of the presentinvention uses a single weight for each schedule. Therefore, for eachoccupant schedule j (meaning the schedule identified by the integer j;j=0, 1, . . . , n−1), the weight w_(j) (at step 1104) is calculated byaveraging the weighting coefficients of the schedule's activities.Continuing this persona inference procedure, the next step is togenerate a separate schedule attribute a_(ij) for each persona attributei and occupant schedule j at step 1108. The derivation of a_(ij) dependson the type of persona attribute. For example, if the attributequantifies an office worker's arrival time, a_(ij) is assigned the timebetween midnight and the first office activity of the day. If thepersona attribute is the percentage of time spent in meetings, thena_(ij) is calculated by dividing the accumulated time spent in meetingsby the time elapsed between arrival and departure times.

After n weights w_(j) and all m·n schedule attributes a_(ij) areobtained, certain statistics are calculated at step 1110. In anembodiment, the mean value μ_(i) and standard deviation σ_(i) for eachpersona attribute i are calculated. In an embodiment, this can be doneby evaluating n_(w) using Equation 3, then obtaining each μ_(i) andσ_(i) using Equations 4 and 5.

$\begin{matrix}{n_{w} = {\sum\limits_{j = 0}^{n - 1}w_{j}}} & (3) \\{\mu_{i} = {\frac{1}{n_{w}} \cdot {\sum\limits_{j = 0}^{n - 1}{w_{j} \cdot a_{ij}}}}} & (4) \\{\sigma_{i} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{n_{w}}{\sum\limits_{j = 0}^{n - 1}{w_{j} \cdot \left( {a_{ij} - \mu_{i}} \right)^{2}}}}} & (5)\end{matrix}$

The inferred persona is completed by applying Equation 1 for eachpersona attribute to calculate the corresponding interval at step 1112.

In an embodiment, the probability p can, in some cases, be adjusted toyield a more reasonable interval. Consider, for example, the situationwhere an arbitrarily selected p of 80% yielded an interval of −2(negative two) to 5 breaks per day. In order to avoid the negativenumber, breaks may instead be limited 0 to 3 breaks with a recalculatedp of 42%.

The persona generated according to the method of FIG. 11 can then beused according to the method of FIG. 10 to generate simulated schedulesthat can then be used in the usage of a building. The persona generatedaccording to the method of FIG. 11 can be used in conjunction with themethod of FIG. 10 to generate a number of simulated schedules asdesired.

The manner of creating an artificial persona in order to generatefictional schedules will now be discussed. Note that the presentinvention does not discard schedule-calibrated methods because theinclusion of recorded schedules alleviates the need to obtain allbehavioral information from user-supplied personas. In a case whererecorded behavior contradicts an artificial persona attribute, however,it is the attribute that should govern the behavior of the simulatedoccupant.

In order to solve the present customization problem, the matrix equationA·W=B as shown in FIG. 7 is used. As shown, matrices A 702 and B 704 areknown, and a solution will be found for the vector W 706. Moreover, W706 includes the weights obtained from schedules and artificial personaweighting coefficients.

Shown in FIG. 12 is a method for constructing an artificial personaaccording to an embodiment of the present invention. Although the methodis described in conjunction with the various system representations setforth herein, persons skilled in the art will understand that any systemthat describes the method steps, in any order, falls within the scope ofthe present invention.

Whereas persona inference entails the use of n schedules and n weightsto calculate m persona attributes, the method of FIG. 12 forconstructing an artificial persona is provided m persona attributes andn schedules with which to obtain n weights. As will be shown, the methodof FIG. 12 steers the simulated behavior toward that of a desiredartificial persona.

As shown, m persona attributes are input at step 1202 and n schedulesare input at step 1204. In an embodiment of the invention, certain ofthe persona attributes can be specified as intervals. In such anembodiment, as shown in FIG. 12, the statistics μ_(i) and σ_(i) arecalculated at step 1206 for each persona attribute i using Equation 2.At step 1208, schedule attribute a_(ij) are generated as described abovefor persona inference (see step 1108 of FIG. 11).

At this point the weights w_(j) and their sum n_(w) are unknown.Mathematically, n_(w) is eliminated from Equations 4 and 5 bysubstitution using Equation 3. Further manipulation yields Equations 6and 7.

$\begin{matrix}{{\sum\limits_{j = 0}^{n - 1}{\frac{a_{ij} - \mu_{i}}{\sigma_{i}} \cdot w_{j}}} = 0} & (6) \\{{\sum\limits_{j = 0}^{n - 1}{\left( \frac{\left( {a_{{ij}\; -}\mu_{i}} \right)^{2}}{\sigma_{i}^{2}} \right) \cdot w_{j}}} = 0} & (7)\end{matrix}$

The Equations 6 and 7 can then be expressed as matrix equations of theform A·W=B as shown in FIG. 7. The further constraint of Equation 8 isincluded so as to avoid the trivial exact solution W=0_(n) (i.e., thevector W containing the unknown weights w_(j) and 0_(n) being a vectorof n zeros).

r _(A) ·w _(j) =r _(A)  (8)

With m equations given by Equation 6, another m given by Equation 7, andan additional n given by Equation 8, 2·m+n equations are available for nunknowns. For this over specified situation, a least squares solution isimplemented for calculating W at step 1210 in the method of FIG. 12.Note, however, that other solutions as known in the art could also beimplemented.

Note that a large value of r_(A) emphasizes Equation 8. These nequations, which imply that w_(j)=1 for all j, steer the simulatedbehavior towards that found in the schedules. Conversely, small valuesof r_(A) favor the persona. In certain applications, it has beenobserved that there can be a large discrepancy between the schedules andthe artificial persona. In these situations, it is safest to use a larger_(A) in order to discourage variability in the weights. In anembodiment of the invention, Equation 9 is used, which quantifies thisdiscrepancy. Note that A_(2·m) is the top 2·m-by-n submatrix of A, andB_(2·m) is the top 2·m-element subvector of B.

r _(A) =∥A _(2·m)·1_(n) −B _(2·m)∥  (9)

The least squares solution as calculated in step 1210 is the W thatminimizes ∥A·W−B∥. Note that the standard solution neglects the factthat, in one embodiment, the weights should be non-negative. In anembodiment W is obtained using the Fast Non-Negativity-Constrained LeastSquares Algorithm (FNNLS) of Bro and Jong (1997), which guaranteesw₁≧0.0 for all j. Small values of r from Equation 10 suggest asuccessful fit.

r=∥A _(2·m) ·W−B _(2·m)∥  (10)

With Win hand, every activity of each schedule j can be assigned w_(j)as a weighting coefficient as shown in step 1212 of FIG. 12. If the nschedules and the new weighting coefficients are used in the modelcalibration phase, the resulting simulated behavior reflects both theschedules and the artificial persona.

The persona generated according to the method of FIG. 12 can then beused according to the method of FIG. 10 to generate simulated schedulesthat can then be used in the usage of a building. The persona generatedaccording to the method of FIG. 12 can be used in conjunction with themethod of FIG. 10 to generate a number of simulated schedules asdesired.

In an embodiment of the invention, occupant interaction and behaviorcustomization are combined into a single multiple-occupant simulationmethod. This method was tested by collecting behavioral data andimplementing a prototype in C++.

This embodiment of the present invention uses a set of recorded occupantschedules. For testing purposes, a total of 121 schedules were gatheredfrom six researchers who tracked their own activities in an officeenvironment. Each schedule resembled the schedules of FIG. 2 with finerresolution. In this embodiment, tasks were limited to off, desk work,desk meeting, team meeting, tech visit (e.g., using the printer),washroom break, onsite break, and offsite break. FIG. 8 shows theprobability that an occupant is working at their desk (lower region 802)and engaging in shared activities with other occupants (upper region804) throughout the day based on the 121 schedules that were used.

In application recorded schedules can be packaged with simulationsoftware and reused. The set of personas and the number of occupants foreach persona can, however, be specified on a per-project basis.

The fictional building described here included 100 occupants and 3personas: (i) 50 occupants for Persona X, (ii) 40 for Persona Y, and(iii) 10 for Persona Z. Instead of artificially creating Persona X, itssix persona attributes (m=6) were inferred from the recorded schedules.Below, p=50% for the desk meeting interval and 80% elsewhere.

-   -   Persona X (inferred from input data).    -   . . . arrives between 08:26 and 12:30    -   . . . leaves between 15:29 and 21:44    -   . . . spends 0.0% to 14.7% of the day in desk meetings    -   . . . has a 19.8% chance of meeting with the team    -   . . . takes a break onsite 0.2 to 3.2 times per day    -   . . . has a 51.2% chance of taking a break offsite

For the persona attributes pertaining to team meetings and offsitebreaks, the probabilities listed are the mean values μ. The intervalsand standard deviations are redundant for these attributes, asσ=μ·(1−μ). As for the schedule attributes, a_(ij)=1 if schedule jincludes any team meeting/offsite break, and 0 otherwise.

Both Persona Y and Persona Z were artificially created. Note thedifferences between the behavior specified below for Persona Z, and thatinferred from the recorded schedules.

-   -   Persona Z (artificially created).    -   . . . arrives between 10:00 and 11:00    -   . . . leaves between 18:00 and 21:00    -   . . . spends 10.0% to 20.0% of the day in desk meetings    -   . . . has a 40.0% chance of meeting with the team    -   . . . takes a break onsite 1.0 to 3.0 times per day    -   . . . has a 20.0% chance of taking a break offsite

Before simulating interacting occupants, a set of n_(ind) independentschedules are generated for each persona. A value of n_(ind)=10000 wasused, generating the Persona X schedules with a schedule-calibratedmethod.

For each artificial persona like Y and Z, behavior was first customizedby generating n independent schedules, constructing the matrices of FIG.7, and solving for W. A value of n=400. If there is a significantdiscrepancy between the n schedules and an artificial persona, a singleapplication of the FNNLS algorithm may not be sufficient. In thissituation, the customization procedure can be repeated several times. Oneach iteration, the current W is used to generate a new set of nschedules, which in turn yields an updated W. The value of r tends todecrease with each iteration as each successive set of n schedulesbetter reflects the persona. The iterations were terminated when r≦0.1.In the present example, three iterations were used for both Persona Yand Persona Z. Final sets of weights are used to generate the sets ofn_(ind) schedules.

For each persona, n_(ind) independent schedules are available from whichto calibrate a separate activity generator. It is at this point that theoccupant interaction weighting scheme is applied where eachn_(PO)-person activity is given a coefficient of 1/n_(PO). When anoccupant's current activity expires during a simulation, the activitygenerator associated with his persona produces the next activity.

The final challenge is to allow occupants of multiple personas to besummoned to the same shared activity yet preserve the behavior in theindependent schedules. In this embodiment, all sets of n_(ind) schedulesare used to calibrate a single participant generator. Whenever anactivity generator outputs a shared activity, the participant generatorcalculates the proportion of the summoned occupants to allocate to eachpersona. All four activity attributes (time of day, task, n_(PO),duration) are used as factors, and there is one feature for eachpersona. A set of normalized feature values gives the distribution ofpersonas among activity participants.

In applications of the present invention relatively few occupants of aparticular persona, such occupants may be summoned to adisproportionately high number of shared activities. In this situation,an appropriate set of weighting coefficients addresses this issue.Recall that the participant generator is calibrated with n_(ind)schedules of each persona. Each set of n_(ind) schedules is weightedwith the overall fraction of occupants sharing the correspondingpersona. In a prototype, for example, the coefficients for the threepersonas were 0.5, 0.4, and 0.1.

The behavior of the 100 interacting occupants was simulated over a24-hour period for 1000 times. The activity data accumulated from the100,000 resulting schedules was used to create the profiles in FIG. 9.FIG. 9 shows the activity profiles based on the simulated behavior forPersonas X (graph 902, shared activities 904, desk work 906), Y (graph908, shared activities 910, desk work 912), and Z (graph 914, sharedactivities 916, desk work 918).

From a qualitative point of view, the results are as expected. Thesimulated Persona X profiles of FIG. 9 resemble those of the recordedschedules in FIG. 8. Persona Y was designed to exhibit an early scheduleand relatively few shared activities, and this behavior is reflected inFIG. 9. Similarly, the profiles for Persona Z are consistent with theartificial attributes, exhibiting a later schedule and a greaterprevalence of shared activities. A sample of the generated schedules wasalso inspected, looking at each activity. The schedules appearedreasonable.

To quantitatively validate the customization technique, personas wereinferred from the 10000 (n_(ind)) independent schedules. To validate theoccupant interaction technique, personas were also inferred from theschedules of the interacting occupants. Shown below is the artificialversion of Persona Y, following by the two inferred versions. The deskmeeting intervals have probabilities of 68% for the independentsimulated occupants and 42% for the interacting occupants. For all otherattributes, p=80%.

-   -   Persona Y (artificially created).    -   . . . arrives between 08:30 and 09:00    -   . . . leaves between 17:00 and 18:00    -   . . . spends 0.0% to 4.0% of the day in desk meetings    -   . . . has a 10.0% chance of meeting with the team    -   . . . takes a break onsite 0.0 to 2.0 times per day    -   . . . has a 60.0% chance of taking a break offsite    -   Persona Y (independent simulated occupants).    -   . . . arrives between 08:29 and 09:00    -   . . . leaves between 16:54 and 18:11    -   . . . spends 0.0% to 3.8% of the day in desk meetings    -   . . . has a 12.3% chance of meeting with the team    -   . . . takes a break onsite 0.0 to 2.0 times per day    -   . . . has a 59.1% chance of taking a break offsite    -   Persona Y (interacting simulated occupants).    -   . . . arrives between 08:30 and 09:00    -   . . . leaves between 16:56 and 18:11    -   . . . spends 0.0% to 4.9% of the day in desk meetings    -   . . . has a 14.3% chance of meeting with the team    -   . . . takes a break onsite 0.0 to 2.1 times per day    -   . . . has a 63.3% chance of taking a break offsite

Note the agreement between the artificial version of Persona Y and theversion inferred from the independently generated schedules. Althoughthere are differences between the two sets of intervals, thesedifferences are less than the discrepancy expected between predicted andactual occupant behavior. Because a similar level of agreement wasachieved for Persona Z, there is confidence in the customization aspectof the methods of the present invention.

Similarities between the two inferred versions of Persona Y indicatethat occupant interaction was introduced without severely alteringbehavioral patterns. It is worth noting, however, that the prevalence ofshared activities is consistently higher in the version with occupantinteraction. The most prominent discrepancy occurred in the team meetingattribute of Persona Z; with an artificial probability of 40%. Theindependent schedules yielded 40.4%, but with interaction, the resultwas 59.4%. For every other attribute, this bias was observable butreasonable.

With the methods of the present invention, architects, or other users ofsimulation tools, benefit from provided recorded schedules. The presentinvention, with the input of a few persona attributes or even noattributes, can also produce realistic behavior.

In a workflow that implements the present invention, at the beginning ofa project, an architect, or other user of simulation tools, would selecttwo parameters: the type of building (e.g., office building, household,shopping mall) and the total number of occupants. The simulationsoftware would then produce realistic simulated behavior using the tasksand recorded schedules provided for the selected building type. In afurther workflow, in order to account for differences between companyworkers, ages, genders, or cultural traits, personas would be added.This could be done gradually. As an architect designs floor plans andselects specific materials, for example, his model might expand fromzero personas to a few personas with a few attributes each to perhaps adozen detailed personas. At a later stage in the design process, forexample, he may then include personas for occasional guests or officeworkers who may be modeled as typically working from home.

In the present disclosure methods and techniques have been described forsimulating the interaction of occupants of a building. In embodiments ofthe present invention, architects or other users of simulation tools cancreate fictional occupant schedules specifically tailored to their ownprojects.

While the foregoing is directed to embodiments of the present invention,other and further embodiments of the invention may be devised withoutdeparting from the basic scope thereof, and the scope thereof isdetermined by the claims that follow.

1. A method for generating schedules for models of individuals that areoccupants of a building, comprising: assigning one or more predeterminedfirst tasks to a first number of individuals; assigning an identifiedtask to an identified individual, wherein the identified task furtherrequires participation of a first predetermined number of otherindividuals; assigning the identified task to the first predeterminednumber of other individuals.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the firstpredetermined number of other individuals is selected from the firstnumber of individuals
 3. The method of claim 1, further comprisingassigning attributes to the one or more predetermined first tasks andthe identified first task.
 4. The method of claim 3, wherein attributesof the one or more first tasks and the identified task include a starttime and a duration.
 5. The method of claim 3, wherein attributes of theone or more first tasks and the identified task include a priorityindicator.
 6. The method of claim 3, wherein attributes of the one ormore first tasks and the identified task include a location in thebuilding.
 7. The method of claim 1, wherein the one or morepredetermined first tasks include an indication of presence or absencein a building.
 8. The method of claim 1, further comprising: immediatelyassigning the identified task to a second predetermined number of otherindividuals, wherein the second predetermined number is less than thefirst predetermined number.
 9. The method of claim 1, furthercomprising: assigning the identified task to a second predeterminednumber of other individuals after completion of pending first tasksassigned to the second predetermined number of other individuals,wherein the second predetermined number is less than the firstpredetermined number.
 10. A computer-readable medium includinginstructions that, when executed by a processing unit, cause theprocessing unit to generate schedules for models of individuals that areoccupants of a building, by performing the steps of: assigning one ormore predetermined first tasks to a first number of individuals;assigning an identified task to an identified individual, wherein theidentified task further requires participation of a first predeterminednumber of other individuals; assigning the identified task to the firstpredetermined number of other individuals.
 11. The computer-readablemedium of claim 10, wherein the first predetermined number of otherindividuals is selected from the first number of individuals
 12. Thecomputer-readable medium of claim 10, further comprising assigningattributes to the one or more predetermined first tasks and theidentified first task.
 13. The computer-readable medium of claim 12,wherein attributes of the one or more first tasks and the identifiedtask include a start time and a duration.
 14. The computer-readablemedium of claim 12, wherein attributes of the one or more first tasksand the identified task include a priority indicator.
 15. Thecomputer-readable medium of claim 12, wherein attributes of the one ormore first tasks and the identified task include a location in thebuilding.
 16. The computer-readable medium of claim 10, wherein the oneor more predetermined first tasks include an indication of presence orabsence in a building.
 17. The computer-readable medium of claim 10,further comprising: immediately assigning the identified task to asecond predetermined number of other individuals, wherein the secondpredetermined number is less than the first predetermined number. 18.The computer-readable medium of claim 10, further comprising: assigningthe identified task to a second predetermined number of otherindividuals after completion of pending first tasks assigned to thesecond predetermined number of other individuals, wherein the secondpredetermined number is less than the first predetermined number.
 19. Acomputing device comprising: a data bus; a memory unit coupled to thedata bus; a processing unit coupled to the data bus and configured toassign predetermined first tasks to a first number of individuals;assign an identified task to an identified individual, wherein theidentified task requires a first predetermined number of otherindividuals; assign the identified task for the first predeterminednumber of other individuals selected from the first number ofindividuals.
 20. The computing device of claim 19, wherein the memoryincludes instructions that, when executed by the processing unit, causethe processing unit to perform the three assigning steps.